None of us know how the future will unfold, but two technological facts are undeniable:

1. Large Language Models give students a new way to ‘cheat’ on homework, which undermines the learning process.
2. Large Language Models make it much quicker to build online independent learning platforms, not least because they boost human productivity in writing code.

On one hand, this technology could usher in a golden era of independent learning platforms, where students can productively revisit material introduced in class, practice question sets, and get conversational help when they’re stuck on prior learning. On the other hand, this technology, alongside old distractions like video games, YouTube, and iPads, gives young people yet another reason to struggle with independent learning.

There is a solution, of course, but it comes at a cost to the taxpayer: keep state secondary schools open for extended hours so that all independent learning—whether on paper or online—can be completed in a supervised setting.

Teacher-led instruction currently makes up about 83% of secondary schooling, with students typically receiving 5-hours of classes followed by 1-hour of homework. It may not be disrupted by AI much at all, for all of the reasons we discussed in The Next Big Thing in School Improvement. But this doesn’t mean that education cannot benefit from AI…

Loosening the Timetable Matching Problem

Let’s speculate about what could happen if the government funds longer opening times for secondary schools. If on-site independent learning time takes place at the end of the day as a ‘Period 6,’ not much else changes. But what if these independent study sessions were interspersed throughout the day? The school could benefit in one of two ways (but not both simultaneously):

1. Better matching of students and teachers to classes. The secondary timetable is a two-sided matching problem with very little slack on either side. Students have preferences for teachers (often ones they’ve had before and ideally subject specialists), and teachers have preferences for classes. Every timetabler knows it’s impossible to create a perfect timetable for every student and teacher. Introducing slack so that students need teachers for only 25/30 sessions and teachers need classes for at most 22/30 sessions could significantly improve the timetable match.
2. Compressed hours for teachers. For teachers with a remarkable level of stamina and a desire for a day off each week, we could try to create timetables that compress their teaching sessions into four days, allowing them to work from home one day a week. It’s not for everyone, but we know from Teacher Tapp that many would prefer an extended four-day week over the current five-day setup.

Why 83%?

Now that we’re considering the 83% teacher-led instructional model, with all learning—whether independent or teacher-led—taking place on-site, we should ask, “Why is it 83% in every subject?” Subjects differ greatly—in their knowledge structures, in the balance between new instruction and practising existing skills, in the nature of the performance they’re trying to achieve, in the quality of independent learning materials, and so on.

I’ll leave you to ponder what the future of independent study could look like in your own subject, but I’ll mention the obvious one: maths. My daughter spends vastly more hours in the maths classroom than I did at school, driven by the race for 5A*-C, including English and maths, followed by Progress 8 incentives. And like me, she doesn’t always have a maths teacher teaching her (I was taught GCSE maths by a dance teacher, and I taught KS3 maths as an economics teacher—maths teacher shortages are an age-old problem). It’s easy to imagine a near future where maths learning platforms excel at helping students fill gaps in their understanding (essential in a mastery subject) and providing extensive independent practice and conversational support on appropriate tasks. What would be the optimal proportion of teacher-led time for maths in the future? 83%? 66%? 50%? Perhaps we can envision a world where there are enough maths teachers to share among students for the teacher-led instruction that remains.

OK, I’m going to wrap it up here because I’m trying to write shorter blog posts, and besides, the government’s not going to find the money to keep secondary schools open for an extra hour each day! But it was fun to think about this and I look forward to chatting to you over on Bluesky.